Last week on the Hill, I had the opportunity to address representatives of the goverment during the LISTA Technology Legislative Forum where I provided an outlook on emerging technologies.
I want to share the main points of the briefing:
Intro:
Innovation and the Democratization of technology are driving the growth of our economy. Retention in technology, science, energy professions and the creation of green jobs propel innovation and position our country to compete in the new global and "connected" economy.
Solid understanding of the emerging technologies trends will position us to anticipate the needs of our economy and the consumer market.
Trends and Technologies:
1) Electronification of transactions (financial transactions, medical records), migration from paper to electronic medium.
2) User-generated content and democratization of information and knowledge ( adoption of web 2.0 technologies). Impact of user-generated trends to digital media and adversiting.
3) Mobile technologies ( mobile payments, P2P services, location - based services)
4) RFID, NFC impacting manufaturing, retailers, logistics
5) Adoption of Web 2.0 technologies (blogs, wikies, tagging)
6) Social networking
7) Collaboration technologies (teleconferences, videoconferencing) enable global collaboration and accelaration of innovation.
8) Cloud Computing
9) Nanotechnologies
10) Open Source Architecture
Showing posts with label Emerging Technologies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Emerging Technologies. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Friday, April 17, 2009
Framework for Doing Business in Social Networks
Summer 2007, as part of managing a portfolio of internet emerging technologies I became interested in exploring social networks and virtual worlds for business purposes.
Second Life was the buzzword back then (just like now everyone is talking about Twitter) so in collaboration with IBM partners we conducted a POC in Second Life. My goal was to test virtual worlds as a viable solution for internal collaboration for distributed teams of employees. The name of my avatar was Noemi and all avatars met at the IBM Business Center.
My ENTP mind always has the tendency to conceptualize things and created a framework to classify the different type of business opportunities within social networks. I wanted to use the framework for a conference but at the last minute the topic of my presentation changed and never used it.
Yesterday, I was cleaning old files when I found this framework. The classification still as relevant as it was in 2007. Perhaps even more relevant now when we look at the success with Twitter gaining broad media popularity and micropayments becoming the backbone of World Warcraft like gaming sites.
Just like the User-driven World matrix helps organizations to understand the behavioral motivations behind the consumerization of emerging technologies, the following framework will help organization in the identification of business opportunities to leverage and monetize social networks.
Let me know if the framework was helpful. And I will embrace the practice of checking my old files for new sources of information.
Second Life was the buzzword back then (just like now everyone is talking about Twitter) so in collaboration with IBM partners we conducted a POC in Second Life. My goal was to test virtual worlds as a viable solution for internal collaboration for distributed teams of employees. The name of my avatar was Noemi and all avatars met at the IBM Business Center.
My ENTP mind always has the tendency to conceptualize things and created a framework to classify the different type of business opportunities within social networks. I wanted to use the framework for a conference but at the last minute the topic of my presentation changed and never used it.
Yesterday, I was cleaning old files when I found this framework. The classification still as relevant as it was in 2007. Perhaps even more relevant now when we look at the success with Twitter gaining broad media popularity and micropayments becoming the backbone of World Warcraft like gaming sites.
Just like the User-driven World matrix helps organizations to understand the behavioral motivations behind the consumerization of emerging technologies, the following framework will help organization in the identification of business opportunities to leverage and monetize social networks.
Let me know if the framework was helpful. And I will embrace the practice of checking my old files for new sources of information.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Mobile Trends Predictions
Innovation is not about the latest technology invention but about the value of the technology to the user and the society in the form of a service. (Read Peter Drucker’s classic book Innovation and Entrepreneurship). The degree of which the new technology produces a service that fulfills one of the basic human-needs from my 2X2 matrix is what defines the value of the invention. The value to the end user and the ease of use of the new technology is what differentiates innovation from invention.
On my last trip back from San Francisco I spent 4 hours writing down my thoughts about promising mobile trends to discover later that I had left my notes in the airplane.
Instead of trying to remember everything I wrote, I decided to share my predictions about mobile services that will bring value to consumers.
1) Acceptance of 2-way SMS messages with a location-based customer loyalty component: Consumers will get discount coupes via SMS when they are shopping at a particular retailer. (check Clairmail)
2) Deployment of mobile payment interoperability for mass-transit transportation across different geographic locations: People will use a mobile phone to pay for the subway in NY and the Bart in San Francisco.
3) Deployment of speech recognition features with natural language processing on the mobile phone: Finally, I will be able to talk to my phone in a combination of English, Spanish and Russian and my phone will understand what I am saying.
4) Acceptance of micro payments via mobile phones and combined billing capabilities: Consumer’s purchases will be included in the phone bill. I bet the telecoms are going to like this one.
5) Increasing convergence between PC and mobile browsers: iPhone-like browsers will become the standard.
6) Acceptance of the Chief Mobile Office role in financial services: the mass adoption of mobile payments and the growing importance of the mobile channel as a source of revenue generation will require that this channel get dedicated attention rather than continue to be viewed as part of internet / ecommerce channel.
7) Mobilizing the POS: retailers will accept mobile payments at the POS.
Making Predictions is a risky business and most of the time we get them wrong !
On my last trip back from San Francisco I spent 4 hours writing down my thoughts about promising mobile trends to discover later that I had left my notes in the airplane.
Instead of trying to remember everything I wrote, I decided to share my predictions about mobile services that will bring value to consumers.
1) Acceptance of 2-way SMS messages with a location-based customer loyalty component: Consumers will get discount coupes via SMS when they are shopping at a particular retailer. (check Clairmail)
2) Deployment of mobile payment interoperability for mass-transit transportation across different geographic locations: People will use a mobile phone to pay for the subway in NY and the Bart in San Francisco.
3) Deployment of speech recognition features with natural language processing on the mobile phone: Finally, I will be able to talk to my phone in a combination of English, Spanish and Russian and my phone will understand what I am saying.
4) Acceptance of micro payments via mobile phones and combined billing capabilities: Consumer’s purchases will be included in the phone bill. I bet the telecoms are going to like this one.
5) Increasing convergence between PC and mobile browsers: iPhone-like browsers will become the standard.
6) Acceptance of the Chief Mobile Office role in financial services: the mass adoption of mobile payments and the growing importance of the mobile channel as a source of revenue generation will require that this channel get dedicated attention rather than continue to be viewed as part of internet / ecommerce channel.
7) Mobilizing the POS: retailers will accept mobile payments at the POS.
Making Predictions is a risky business and most of the time we get them wrong !
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
What is the Color of Your iPhone?
Every morning when I put the watch on my left arm, I ask myself the same question: Do I need to continue wearing a watch when I always look at my blackberry to check the time?
I have tried not to wear a watch to go to work but the next day before I leave my bedroom I put it back. Why? One answer is because of a habit of wearing a watch which of course is true, but the other answer is because I like my watch. My watch has a personal meaning.
The same is happening with mobile phones. For many of people the mobile device is a symbol of personal freedom and accessibility to value-added services. And, when I think about the time my daughter and I spent selecting the color and the style of our blackberries I go as far as saying that the mobile device has become a Personal Statement.
Technical innovations are transforming consumer behaviors, with the mobile phone being by far the most ubiquitous personal technology. The mass adoption of a mobile phone has far outpaced the adoption of the PCs. And, while there are parallels between adapting to the rise of the mobile channel and the advent of the Internet channel, this time the changes in consumer use and adoption are happening faster pushing innovation forward.
Coincidentally, the other technology that I can think about it that has achieved this astronomical level of consumer adoption is the watch. A watch is very easy to use, serves an important purpose, and it is a personal statement. A good watch is also a “statement of luxury”, just ask this question to people who pay substantial amount of money for a Rolex or Patek Philippe.
The mass adoption of mobile devices is connected the 2X2 matrix of four human-need drivers of Consumerization of Emerging Technologies: Social, Personal, Mobility & Convenience, and Security.
For example, let’s talk about Security and the mobile phone. First, many of the security protection solutions for strong authentication use out band authentication. In other words, the mobile phone is used as an alternative channel for consumers to get a secret PIN. But also think about how do you feel when your children are away from home or driving a car if they just got their driver license and you know they carry a phone? What a sense of security!
In the world of personal mobile devices, carrying an iPhone is personal statement about style and usability. Personally, I like the look of the iPhone and the same day when the iPhone first became available one of our developers had my approval to get one so we could play with it. Or in other words, so we could “test the functionality of the new device.” And how many different apps you can add now to your iPhone - it 's amazing!
The usability and integration with the native applications represent the future of convergence between PC and mobile browsers and the practicality of the touch screen. But regardless of how much I like the iPhone, I continue to use a blackberry for three main reasons:
1) I can’t access my corporate email through the iPhone
2) I have problems using the touchtone screen, maybe my fingers are too wide
3) I can’t choose a color that goes with my personality
Black or Silver? Both are very elegant colors but think about it, if the mobile device is a Personal Statement people want to be able to choose a color for their iPhone according to their personality.
Wait until Steve Jobs realizes that iPhone sales could increase even more if the devices come in different colors. Hope someone from Apple is reading my blog…
So what is next? How about being able to buy a watch with your phone--and no, I’m not talking about trading your phone for a watch; I’m talking about mobile payments like you can do in Japan!
I have tried not to wear a watch to go to work but the next day before I leave my bedroom I put it back. Why? One answer is because of a habit of wearing a watch which of course is true, but the other answer is because I like my watch. My watch has a personal meaning.
The same is happening with mobile phones. For many of people the mobile device is a symbol of personal freedom and accessibility to value-added services. And, when I think about the time my daughter and I spent selecting the color and the style of our blackberries I go as far as saying that the mobile device has become a Personal Statement.
Technical innovations are transforming consumer behaviors, with the mobile phone being by far the most ubiquitous personal technology. The mass adoption of a mobile phone has far outpaced the adoption of the PCs. And, while there are parallels between adapting to the rise of the mobile channel and the advent of the Internet channel, this time the changes in consumer use and adoption are happening faster pushing innovation forward.
Coincidentally, the other technology that I can think about it that has achieved this astronomical level of consumer adoption is the watch. A watch is very easy to use, serves an important purpose, and it is a personal statement. A good watch is also a “statement of luxury”, just ask this question to people who pay substantial amount of money for a Rolex or Patek Philippe.
The mass adoption of mobile devices is connected the 2X2 matrix of four human-need drivers of Consumerization of Emerging Technologies: Social, Personal, Mobility & Convenience, and Security.
For example, let’s talk about Security and the mobile phone. First, many of the security protection solutions for strong authentication use out band authentication. In other words, the mobile phone is used as an alternative channel for consumers to get a secret PIN. But also think about how do you feel when your children are away from home or driving a car if they just got their driver license and you know they carry a phone? What a sense of security!
In the world of personal mobile devices, carrying an iPhone is personal statement about style and usability. Personally, I like the look of the iPhone and the same day when the iPhone first became available one of our developers had my approval to get one so we could play with it. Or in other words, so we could “test the functionality of the new device.” And how many different apps you can add now to your iPhone - it 's amazing!
The usability and integration with the native applications represent the future of convergence between PC and mobile browsers and the practicality of the touch screen. But regardless of how much I like the iPhone, I continue to use a blackberry for three main reasons:
1) I can’t access my corporate email through the iPhone
2) I have problems using the touchtone screen, maybe my fingers are too wide
3) I can’t choose a color that goes with my personality
Black or Silver? Both are very elegant colors but think about it, if the mobile device is a Personal Statement people want to be able to choose a color for their iPhone according to their personality.
Wait until Steve Jobs realizes that iPhone sales could increase even more if the devices come in different colors. Hope someone from Apple is reading my blog…
So what is next? How about being able to buy a watch with your phone--and no, I’m not talking about trading your phone for a watch; I’m talking about mobile payments like you can do in Japan!
Saturday, January 17, 2009
User Driven World
A User Driven World increases the speed of adoption of those emerging technologies that accelerate the fulfillment of basic human needs.
The “User Driven World” can be explained using a 2x2 framework that evaluates emerging trends as a way to fulfill a combination of basic human needs. In this framework, the speed of adoption of emerging technology has a direct correlation with the degree that the use of the service can facilitate the fulfillment of basic human needs. This framework can help us predict and understand the drivers of consumer adoption of emerging technologies.
I also believe that Cultural Differences impact the world-wide adoption of emerging technologies. For example, Mobility is a global emerging trend with specific manisfestations of adoption in local markets.
What is going to be the impact of the Democratization of Content for countries or cultures were people are used to protect knowledge from the general public?
Does a person in Japan use Google Maps in a different way than a person in US? Yes, just the same way I like to eat mangos more than I like berries.
The “User Driven World” can be explained using a 2x2 framework that evaluates emerging trends as a way to fulfill a combination of basic human needs. In this framework, the speed of adoption of emerging technology has a direct correlation with the degree that the use of the service can facilitate the fulfillment of basic human needs. This framework can help us predict and understand the drivers of consumer adoption of emerging technologies.
I also believe that Cultural Differences impact the world-wide adoption of emerging technologies. For example, Mobility is a global emerging trend with specific manisfestations of adoption in local markets.
What is going to be the impact of the Democratization of Content for countries or cultures were people are used to protect knowledge from the general public?
Does a person in Japan use Google Maps in a different way than a person in US? Yes, just the same way I like to eat mangos more than I like berries.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Predicting the Consumerization of Emerging Technologies
My first job after college (long time ago when programmers used punched cards for data entry) was working as a scientific researcher doing macro economic forecasting. Early in my professional career, I learned that making predictions is a very a difficult task and that most of the time people get their predictions wrong - just check "Worst Predictions About 2008".
So, I don’t know why or how 25 years later I am still in the business of making predictions. Just this time, instead of developing complex econometric models I “evaluate” predictions for the Consumerization of Emerging Technologies in financial services.
Maybe because I always have many dots2connect to make predictions !
For the purpose of this post, my view on emerging technologies focuses on the widespread consumer adoption of the services that these technologies enable rather than the actual technological innovation-- a concept that Gartner calls the “Consumerization of IT.”
Generally speaking, you can find extensive literature describing the process and methodology to select and deploy emerging technologies. Less has been written, however, pertaining to the selection process of emerging business applications from the business point of view of the perceived value to the companies that are adopting these applications. As a result, the quantification of the business strategic value of emerging applications presents a challenge for most companies.
As you can imagine, the definition of “emerging” has a certain degree of relativity since business applications that are considered as emerging to one company might be viewed as core technology by another more advanced company. In practice, most emerging business applications are the result of using established technologies in new ways or the disruptive impact of new entrants like was the case with eBay. A simple way to track new entrants and learn about banking technology innovations in financial services is to attend Finovate.
Now back to Emerging Technologies and according to Gartner: “Successful deployment is more about incremental adoption of technologies used in new ways than about technology breakthroughs”
I believe that the business value of emerging applications is derived more from incremental adoption of technologies used in new ways or convergence of technologies to create innovative business applications than from a sudden technological discovery.
Let’s talk about evaluating Emerging Trends and discuss a user needs-driven approach that considers the degree of market penetration of the new technology for the evaluation and analysis of Emerging Technology Trends.
Look around and you will see that today the speed of Consumerization of Emerging Technologies is impacted by a “User Driven World” trend.
The “User Driven World" can be explained using a 2x2 framework that evaluates emerging trends as a way to fulfill a combination of basic human needs. The speed of adoption of emerging technology has a direct correlation with the degree that the use of the service can facilitate the fulfillment of basic human needs. This framework can help us understand the drivers of consumer adoption of emerging technologies.
The speed of technological change and the rapid market adoption of emerging technologies accelerate the fulfillment of four basic human needs: Social & Communication, Personalization, Speed & Convenience, and Security.
Find more about the "User Driven World" in the context of the following topics:
1) User Generated Content
2) Aggregation of Content
3) Social Communities
4) Mobility and Convenience
I also recommend to check Trendsspotting, Netbanker, and 2009 Web Predictions from ReadWriteWeb, three of my favorite blogs to read about internet trends, marketing research and predictions.
And my last thought, every time you need to predict the adoption of new technology keep in mind that:
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future consumer’s adoption of emerging technologies.” my interpretation of Yogi Berra’s original quote.
So, I don’t know why or how 25 years later I am still in the business of making predictions. Just this time, instead of developing complex econometric models I “evaluate” predictions for the Consumerization of Emerging Technologies in financial services.
Maybe because I always have many dots2connect to make predictions !
For the purpose of this post, my view on emerging technologies focuses on the widespread consumer adoption of the services that these technologies enable rather than the actual technological innovation-- a concept that Gartner calls the “Consumerization of IT.”
Generally speaking, you can find extensive literature describing the process and methodology to select and deploy emerging technologies. Less has been written, however, pertaining to the selection process of emerging business applications from the business point of view of the perceived value to the companies that are adopting these applications. As a result, the quantification of the business strategic value of emerging applications presents a challenge for most companies.
As you can imagine, the definition of “emerging” has a certain degree of relativity since business applications that are considered as emerging to one company might be viewed as core technology by another more advanced company. In practice, most emerging business applications are the result of using established technologies in new ways or the disruptive impact of new entrants like was the case with eBay. A simple way to track new entrants and learn about banking technology innovations in financial services is to attend Finovate.
Now back to Emerging Technologies and according to Gartner: “Successful deployment is more about incremental adoption of technologies used in new ways than about technology breakthroughs”
I believe that the business value of emerging applications is derived more from incremental adoption of technologies used in new ways or convergence of technologies to create innovative business applications than from a sudden technological discovery.
Let’s talk about evaluating Emerging Trends and discuss a user needs-driven approach that considers the degree of market penetration of the new technology for the evaluation and analysis of Emerging Technology Trends.
Look around and you will see that today the speed of Consumerization of Emerging Technologies is impacted by a “User Driven World” trend.
The “User Driven World" can be explained using a 2x2 framework that evaluates emerging trends as a way to fulfill a combination of basic human needs. The speed of adoption of emerging technology has a direct correlation with the degree that the use of the service can facilitate the fulfillment of basic human needs. This framework can help us understand the drivers of consumer adoption of emerging technologies.
The speed of technological change and the rapid market adoption of emerging technologies accelerate the fulfillment of four basic human needs: Social & Communication, Personalization, Speed & Convenience, and Security.
Find more about the "User Driven World" in the context of the following topics:
1) User Generated Content
2) Aggregation of Content
3) Social Communities
4) Mobility and Convenience
I also recommend to check Trendsspotting, Netbanker, and 2009 Web Predictions from ReadWriteWeb, three of my favorite blogs to read about internet trends, marketing research and predictions.
And my last thought, every time you need to predict the adoption of new technology keep in mind that:
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future consumer’s adoption of emerging technologies.” my interpretation of Yogi Berra’s original quote.
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